Tesla reports its first-quarter earnings after the bell tomorrow and investors have a lot of questions about the future of the company, which has been among the worst-performing in the S&P 500 this year.
The FactSet analyst consensus estimates call for earnings per share of $0.41 and revenue of $21.345 billion, up slightly from the $21.301 Tesla reported in Q1 of last year. Both of those estimates have been trending downward since the start of the year, as delivery numbers released earlier this month came in way worse than expected and as the brand’s popularity sank to new lows. Meanwhile, the stock is down more than 40% this year and more than 7% just today.
As Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has written, Tesla is going to have to make a lot of major changes —including CEO Elon Musk stepping down from his position at the Department of Government Efficiency — to turn things around.
Based on a survey of the most upvoted questions shareholders posted on the company’s investor relations website, Tesla investors are very concerned with the company’s timelines —something it’s been notoriously bad about — for promised products like affordable models, full self-driving, and the robotaxi. They’re also worried about how tariffs and political brand damage might affect the company’s future.
Here are some of the top questions on investors’ minds, listed by the number of upvotes on the Tesla investor relations site, and what we know so far about those topics:
Question: Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year?
What we know: Reuters reported over the weekend that Tesla’s lower-cost, stripped-down Model Y, which was supposed to roll out in the first half of this year, is delayed “at least several months.”
Question: When will unsupervised full self-driving be available for personal use on personally owned cars?
What we know: Musk has been promising unsupervised FSD “next year” for at least the last five years. Musk in January said the technology was “limited simply by regulatory issues, not technical capability.”
“I’m very confident we have released unsupervised Full Self-Driving, fully autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year, as probably everywhere in America next year, at everywhere in North America at least.”
For now it seems that full self-driving will be confined to a Tesla-owned fleet of vehicles in Austin, not to personal vehicles. Musk has said this would start in June.
Question: How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs?
What we know: Because Tesla assembles its US-sold cars in the US, it’s insulated compared to other carmakers that finish their cars outside the US. That said, Tesla is heavily reliant on parts shipped from abroad, so its prices and bottom line could certainly be negatively affected by auto parts tariffs that go into effect next month; Musk and other Tesla execs have said as much.
Recently, Tesla suspended shipments of Cybercab and Semi parts from China because the tariffs were so onerous.
Question: Is the Robotaxi still on track for this year?
What we know: As far as we know, Tesla is still on track to roll out paid Cybercab rides in Austin in June (Google’s Waymo beat Tesla on that count), but we’ll believe it when we see it.
Recently, The Information reported that internal analysis from Tesla suggests the self-driving taxis might never be profitable.
Question: Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all the rumors of “brand damage”?
What we know: Tesla’s sales in Q1 saw the biggest drop ever and many analysts said brand damage related to Musk’s role in the government as well as the ensuing protests were at least partly to blame. Tesla bull Ives said brand damage from DOGE could create “15%-20% permanent demand destruction.” Indeed, surveys from YouGov found that while most Americans were aware of Tesla, they wouldn’t buy one — people interested in EVs would be much more likely to go for a Toyota or Honda.
Regarding DOGE, Musk himself said, “It’s costing me a lot to be in this job.”
And Tesla’s Cybertruck seems like it’s been especially difficult to sell. Just take a look at all of them stashed outside Tesla’s Texas production plant.
